воскресенье, 25 сентября 2016 г.

Адизес против Трампа

Интересно Ицхак Адизес написал в блоге своём, почему он против Трампа.

Goodreads | Ichak Kalderon Adizes's Blog: Insights Blog - One More Time: Why Not Trump? - September 23, 2016 13:00

Он при этом сразу говорит что он и не за Ведьму, но типа выбор из двух говен всегда плох

Let me make it clear, I am not enamored with Clinton either. Unfortunately, we have two bad options. We have to choose which of them is less dangerous to this wonderful country. I think Trump is more dangerous, and in what follows I will explain why.

И дальше разбирает Трампа по своей известной PAEI  формуле, согласно которой Трамп - гипертрофированный Е, до отключения всего остального

He listens to no one unless they are applauding him. As a big ego, he likes to surround himself with people who admire him and clap their hands for his performance. He behaves like an actor on stage. He enjoys tremendously the attention he gets. He loves the limelight and the hordes of people cheering him on, and he abhors anyone who disagrees with him.

И что в случае если он попадает на верх пирамиды А-структуры, это закончится разрушением структуры без вариантов.  Тем более что этот Е тип у Ицхака любимый и тщательно им изучен.

But exclusive (E) style, put on top of an enormous (A) system, is dangerous. He is going to be reckless. He will skirt the law. He will violate the Constitution; I am sure of that. A big (E) like this in charge of a big (A) system will be destroying the (A), which people may like to see, but it will have disastrous side effects if not done correctly. Dismantling a bureaucracy and decentralizing power that accumulated in Washington needs to be done very carefully like one will disarm a mine. Destroying a system is not equivalent to building a new one.

А тут как раз сегодня пишут, что уважаемый профессор, который с 1984 года не ошибался ни разу, предсказал что Трамп победит.

Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly

Будет у нас похоже в следующие 4 года редкое шоу для бизнес-кейсов, посильнее чем "как просрать Нокиа за пару лет" в исполнени Эллопа!!!  Жаль только, что осколков по планете столько полетит от разрушения, что не факт что останется кому писать бизнес-кейсы :(

Very concerned of what is happening to America, Just thinking, Ichak Kalderon Adizes

П.С. Странно, кстати, что Адизес не использовал ни разу "Поджигатель", это же его термин из книжки как раз для таких персонажей. Похоже что персональное применение термина к конкретному человеку черевато последствиями у них.  Из его же описания - очень опасный типчик

Что характерно для типичного Поджигателя? Что кажется ему важным? Неважно, что мы делаем. Неважно, как мы это делаем. Поджигателя интересует, в первую очередь: «А почему бы не попробовать?«. Преобразования. Идеи. «Какая разница, пятьдесят автомобилей или пятьдесят миллионов? — спрашивает Престон Такер в фильме Копполы. — Главное — идея, мечта!»

Кто не знал или забыл, вот краткое описание на русском.

П.П.С. Не уверен что Good Reads можно смотреть снаружи, потому полный текст прилагаю ниже полностью.


Let me make it clear, I am not enamored with Clinton either. Unfortunately, we have two bad options. We have to choose which of them is less dangerous to this wonderful country. I think Trump is more dangerous, and in what follows I will explain why.
According to my (PAEI) classification of leadership styles,(1) he is an enormous (E). Here are the symptoms:
He does not follow a script very well.
He listens to no one unless they are applauding him. As a big ego, he likes to surround himself with people who admire him and clap their hands for his performance. He behaves like an actor on stage. He enjoys tremendously the attention he gets. He loves the limelight and the hordes of people cheering him on, and he abhors anyone who disagrees with him.
Like all big (E)s, he exaggerates to the point of being untruthful.
He does not explain his policies. “Details aren’t important now,” he says. If he can’t explain the details now, I doubt he ever will. How will he build a wall on the Mexican border? He says he will make Mexico pay for it. We all know Mexico thinks this is a joke. They won’t pay for such a wall. But he continues to insist they will, without giving any explanation of how he will he accomplish that. He says he will expel millions of illegal immigrants. How? No idea.
He does not read in preparation for decision making. He relies on rumors to make up his mind. He even says, “It is not good to know too much.” He believes that a vague overview of a problem is enough information for him to decide what to do.
Many people who support him believe his decisions will be ok because he will surround himself with qualified people who will not let him make big mistakes.
But If I am right that he is a big , big (E) he does not listen to anyone. Especially if they disagree with him.
Like a classic (E) he believes he is surrounded by turkeys. He believes he is the eagle who knows best. That is why he says, “I know better than the generals how and when to handle war.”
He has a low coefficient of error, like all (E)s. He behaves like an eagle, to whom as any bird, change looks very simple,  effortless, flying over a mountain,  ignoring the details of the terrain that would make the same route extremely difficult on the ground. That is why he says he will destroy the so-called Islamic State in thirty days. That is why a group of top thirty security experts who know the complexity of the situation signed a petition saying that he is dangerous to the security of the United States.
Like all (E)s, he is brash and confident. He promises that he can do all that needs to be done, and that he is the change this country needs.
But is (E) leadership what the country needs now? I believe the United States is in the aging part of its lifecycle. The (A) is enormous. The bureaucracy and the centralization of decision making powers in Washington are only two of the symptoms of aging. That is the reason why the population wants to see change. This explains to me why Trump, the big (E), has gotten as far as he has in the campaign and why he is so close to the White House.
But exclusive (E) style, put on top of an enormous (A) system, is dangerous. He is going to be reckless. He will skirt the law. He will violate the Constitution; I am sure of that. A big (E) like this in charge of a big (A) system will be destroying the (A), which people may like to see, but it will have disastrous side effects if not done correctly. Dismantling a bureaucracy and decentralizing power that accumulated in Washington needs to be done very carefully like one will disarm a mine. Destroying a system is not equivalent to building a new one. I have no doubt there will be a crisis America has not seen yet. The president has authority through executive action to make decisions and bypass the legislative function. Trump will do exactly that and lead us into a constitutional crisis. He is an arsonist in his style; he will start fires all over the place, fires that he will not be able to control. These will not be small fires, as he will have enormous power. This is serious. America is not some startup country where the (E) style is effective.
Clinton is less dangerous. She is being accused of lying. Her lies are minuscule in comparison to Trumps exaggerations which are continuously proven to hold no water i.e. they are lies too. And much, much bigger.
She is being accused of supporting the war in Iraq, for Bengazi, for losses on the foreign policy arena as if she could have controlled those events all by herself.  Much of what she is being accused of I attribute to the fact the sun is setting on America and she could not have done much to stop that.
The email saga? Well, Powel did it and even recommended the practice. It is all a smear strategy of dirty politics.
Granted, she is not JFK. She is not FDR. She is not another Clinton we all know. I would have preferred someone with more charisma, with more courage to make changes and try at least to de-bureaucratize this country but in comparing the risks we will be taking with Trump’s hands on the levers of power versus her hands, she is prone to do much less damage.
Very concerned of what is happening to America,
Just thinking,

Ichak Kalderon Adizes